French election looms
On 10 April (first round) and 24 April (second round) the French will vote to elect their president. Until a few years ago, local presidential elections were a source of uncertainty for investors, as some high-profile candidates campaigned around the idea of limiting European integration or even removing the country from the EU (“Frexit”).
This time around, though, the election is seen by many as a non-event. First, incumbent Emmanuel Macron is credited with a significant lead in polls in both the first and the second rounds, and second, most leading candidates have toned down their anti-European rhetoric. While we don’t see any significant medium-term risk, polls have been wrong before and the lack of uncertainty is, in itself, a concern.