Insights from the Global Family Office Forum

The following article replays some of the major insights shared at our Global Family Office Forum in September 2024. 

Please note: Barclays does not endorse any of the individuals or companies referenced. The insights shared below do not constitute advice. 

In conversation with George Osborne 

The former Chancellor shared some fascinating insights about the challenges facing the UK government as it prepares for its crucial first Budget announcement next month – a process that typically includes around 4,000 or so individual decisions. With limited tax levers available, the government must navigate stretched public services, high debt levels and the increasing strain on UK finances from the ageing population.  

However, the gloomy rhetoric on the UK economy might have been oversold. While there has been much focus on the £22 billion fiscal ‘black hole’, it’s worth remembering that the UK government spends more than £1 trillion each year¹. Setting the right tone at the Budget will be key to securing the confidence of the public, financial markets and the business community, and ultimately the UK’s economic prosperity.

Turning to the wider geopolitical landscape, there are still reasons for optimism, despite the ongoing conflicts and tensions. Not least as human ingenuity continues to innovate and push us towards finding solutions to global challenges, such as we’re seeing with artificial intelligence and other technological advances.  

Asset allocation in an uncertain world

Julien Lafargue, our Chief Market Strategist, reminded investors of the importance of looking beyond short-term market noise to ‘see the forest for the trees’ when it comes to portfolio allocation.  

While there has been much media and investor debate around when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, it’s more relevant for asset allocators to consider why the Fed is cutting rates and how could that impact risk assets. Is it normalising monetary policy in the context of a soft landing, or are there deeper concerns about recession? In the current climate, broad expectations of lower growth, lower inflation and lower rates would seemingly support a quality, defensive positioning. 

Geopolitics is another key area on investors’ minds, often in the context of ongoing conflict or modelling potential outcomes of a particular election, but there are bigger forces at play – climate change, demographic changes and deglobalisation – which are likely to be far more disruptive. Focusing on these secular shifts and how to manage the risks (and potential opportunities) within an investment portfolio, may be more pertinent and actionable for long-term investors.  

The future of emerging trends 

Extending the topic of global trends, Hiral Patel, Global Head of Sustainable & Thematic Research at Barclays Investment Bank, gave a whistlestop tour of some of the trends that are gaining momentum and have potential to grow in the next 12-18 months.  

These insights were drawn from the Barclays 2030 Thematic Roadmap, which outlines 150 trends across six thematic paradigms that are likely to dominate investor discussions over the next decade. 

Within technology, the need for green data centres is becoming more pressing to support the growth of AI. Cybersecurity, notably ransomware, is an increasingly important area, while semiconductors and quantum computing are gaining traction. Within consumer, food and retail, emerging trends include precision fermentation, the halal economy and solutions to food waste, while in industrials, heating and cooling systems, and infrastructure for electric vehicles will likely be needed for the energy transition.  

With energy and environment, resource efficiency and tackling electronic waste are key themes, while focus on natural capital will likely increase with the introduction of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD). In healthcare and modern science, trends are progressing more slowly, but synthetic biology is one area of interest while new solutions that aim to improve access and inclusion, such as FemTech and fertility solutions, are expected to develop. 

Private markets: navigating the future  

Scott Kleinman, Co-President at Apollo Asset Management, reflected on the transformation of the private markets industry, and the potential opportunities and risks ahead. After 15 years of low interest rates and an extended bull market, the next decade could be more challenging, but it’s also a potentially interesting time to deploy capital. Two particular trends are catching private market investors’ attention: 1) more companies are moving public to private, despite the S&P 500 index reaching all-time highs in 2024; and 2) the need to invest in the energy transition, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and that private markets can play a role in this. 

Perceptions around the illiquidity of private markets compared to public markets have shifted, suggesting investors are on the cusp of a new paradigm for public/private allocations. This runs in parallel with an observed convergence of private and institutional wealth in private markets over the past five years, which highlights the different needs of each client base, including family offices.   

Family office leadership and governance

Tankut Sensurucu, Partner at Egon Zehnder, reflected on the evolving needs of family offices, specifically focusing on executive search, noting that family offices often recruit for the very long term – 30 years or more, and so finding the right personality ‘fit’ is crucial. Broadly speaking, integrity and values tend to matter most to families, often more than performance, while collaboration, emotional intelligence and patience may also be key skills for potential candidates. A family’s needs will likely change over time, so adaptability is key. Often, it’s a balance between hiring in expertise and outsourcing to specialists for support, as needed. 

Nurturing the business and leadership skills of the next generation is also a focus. Some families will want this to happen outside the family, to encourage new perspectives and experiences. Others may prefer to do this from within, with in-house professionals acting as mentors, to facilitate a more gradual transition between generations. 

In conversation with Arsène Wenger OBE 

The former Arsenal manager – considered one of the finest managers of the modern era – shared insights and anecdotes from his career success, focusing on how to optimise team performance through leadership. 

For him, contact, contrition and consistency in philosophy and behaviour are key, as are self-reflection and self-awareness around performance. Rather than seeking perfection, it’s about identifying each player’s dominant quality and where they can best express that talent. It also requires managing ego, and building shared values and connections between players.  

Reflecting on Arsenal’s record 49-game winning streak, he noted that helping a team succeed demands setting high targets, even if you don’t always reach them. It’s about looking beyond winning the next game and fuelling an aspiration to achieve something bigger together. 

Final thoughts 

These highlights offer a brief overview of just some of the topics discussed – there were also featured sessions on the energy transition, real estate, philanthropy and cybersecurity. Our thanks again to all those who contributed and attended this insightful and energising event. 

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