In Focus Monthly - July 2018

With today’s complex investment backdrop, our experts have curated several essays to help you navigate a myriad of challenges, including recession forecasting, government bonds and Regret Theory.

Recession forecasting is known to be near impossible. In this edition of In Focus, our experts analyse the yield curve and whether it is a reliable tool.

Emerging market equities investors balancing rising protectionism and US interest rates face challenging times. Read why our experts are leaning portfolios towards emerging market equities.

We also assess government bonds as the US administration stokes inflationary pressures.

In the US-China trade war, soybeans are the top agricultural import from the US. In dollar terms, only aeroplanes are a larger export to China. What pressures could tariffs create?

Emerging market debt expert Anton Dombrovsky of PIMCO discusses the sector’s increased volatility and more.

Lastly, now the World Cup is over, we compare betting against your team and investment behaviour.

We hope you enjoy reading this issue.

Yield curves and recessions

Recession forecasting, long thought to be one the “Holy Grails” of Economics, is well known to be incredibly difficult, some say impossible.

Scylla, Charybdis and emerging market equities

Investors in emerging market equities are currently being subjected to a similar examination at the hands of higher US interest rates on one side and rising protectionism on the other.

Government bonds: Still a safe haven?

Since the financial crisis, central banks have slashed interest rates and purchased trillions of dollars-worth of bonds in order to stimulate the economy.

In Focus interview


Anton Dombrovsky talks to Ian Aylward to discuss key issues in the market, including the need to closely monitor elections and where his team sees opportunity.

Soybeans – the first casualty of the trade war

The US has imposed tariffs on $34bn of Chinese imports on July 6 and China has retaliated by imposing a similar 25% tariff on 545 US products, also worth a total of $34bn.

Why you may want to bet against your own team

The World Cup is now behind us but the emotional ups and downs of following your national team allow us to draw parallels with investing behaviour.

Catch up on our older issues of In Focus Monthly: