Ageing population: the golden age of silver spending
Older people are set to have a profound effect on businesses and potential investment opportunities. We previously introduced the ageing population trend and examined investment opportunities in healthcare resulting from a global population that is living longer, but also wants to live better as it ages. We covered the Pharma and biotech and Medtech sectors.
However, healthcare is not the only sector which is set to be transformed by a rapidly ageing population. By 2040, 1.3bn people are projected to be over 65, double the level in 20151,and by 2050 the over 60s will account for one in five people globally2. This older generation, growing both in scale and influence, will increasingly shape and even create new markets through its spending.
Power of silver spending
Older generations, or so-called silver spenders, collectively control an increasingly significant share of global wealth and spending.
The global spending power of consumers aged over 60 years old is set to reach US$15tn by 2020, up from $8tn in 20103. Notably, those aged 55 and over in the US spend twice as much as millennials aged under 35 today4.
The older generations are also set to dominate global spending in the future; the 60-plus age segment will account for nearly 60% of consumption growth in western Europe and north-east Asia.
Shifting spending habits
Through different stages of our lives the way we spend our money changes. Historically, older people spend more on areas such as healthcare, nursing homes and housing maintenance, while the cost of schooling, consumer durables and eating out decreases.
Expected demographic changes will create several profitable opportunities for many sectors from the over 55s while creating challenges for others. For instance, PGIM forecasts real annual spending on nursing homes in the US in 2070 will be $325bn higher than today, solely due to the ageing of the population5.
However, with people living longer and healthier lives, the traditional stages of life may also change. This has the potential to completely reshape the way the older generation spend money. This would come from a longer retirement, which is more active, independent (due to the healthcare developments previously covered) and includes a longer period of working which could include career changes.
The surge expected in the number of people over 65 in coming years, who have a longer consumption time span, could effectively create a new spending segment in the population. So, how can investors position themselves to capture the opportunities related to this trend?
With an older generation who have become accustomed to seeing the world, and likely will have more time, we expect the travel and tourism sector to see a substantial boost from the silver spenders. The healthy living and lifestyle sector will see increased spending as the desire to look and feel good boosts fitness and anti-ageing products and services.
However, silver spenders will have to fund this spending. While there is talk of the intergenerational wealth transfer that will put substantial wealth in the hands of the younger generation; people will need to grow and protect their wealth to fund a longer retirement. So financial services is another sector to explore.
Overall, the considerable spending power of silver spenders has the potential to alter the global economy – in essence, a golden age of silver spending.
Investments can fall as well as rise in value. Your capital or the income generated from your investment may be at risk.
This document has been issued by the Investments division at Barclays Private Banking and Overseas Services (“PBOS”) division and is not a product of the Barclays Research department. Any views expressed may differ from those of Barclays Research. All opinions and estimates included in this document constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. No representation is made as to the accuracy of the assumptions made within, or completeness of, any modeling, scenario analysis or back-testing.
Barclays is not responsible for information stated to be obtained or derived from third party sources or statistical services, and we do not guarantee the information’s accuracy which may be incomplete or condensed.
This document has been prepared for information purposes only and does not constitute a prospectus, an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any other instrument, which may be discussed in it.
Any offer or entry into any transaction requires Barclays’ subsequent formal agreement which will be subject to internal approvals and execution of binding transaction documents. Any past or simulated past performance including back-testing, modeling or scenario analysis contained herein does not predict and is no indication as to future performance. The value of any investment may also fluctuate as a result of market changes.
The value of any investment may also fluctuate as a result of market changes.
Neither Barclays, its affiliates nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives or agents, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this communication or its contents or reliance on the information contained herein, except to the extent this would be prohibited by law or regulation..
This document and the information contained herein may only be distributed and published in jurisdictions in which such distribution and publication is permitted. You may not distribute this document, in whole or part, without our prior, express written permission. Law or regulation in certain countries may restrict the manner of distribution of this document and persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves of and observe such restrictions.
The contents herein do not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting or other advice. You should consider your own financial situation, objectives and needs, and conduct your own independent investigation and assessment of the contents of this document, including obtaining investment, legal, tax, accounting and such other advice as you consider necessary or appropriate, before making any investment or other decision.
THIS COMMUNICATION IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY AND IT IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. IT IS INDICATIVE ONLY AND IS NOT BINDING.