Executive summary
What lies ahead for the global economy and financial markets in 2024?
Outlook 2024
13 November 2023
Welcome to our “Outlook 2024” report
Strong economic headwinds will likely persist in 2024, amid an increasingly fraught geopolitical backdrop, and diverging fortunes in the key regions. Investors should brace both for uncertainty, and for market volatility that often accompanies it.
Despite the obvious challenges, our report offers context on why it’s not all doom-and-gloom for investors. In addition to our macro and asset class analysis, you’ll find fresh insights on the fast-evolving sustainability space, as well as our latest perspectives from the field of behavioural finance.
The world is changing at pace, but for long-term investors the core message remains consistent: stay invested and stay diversified.
Jean-Damien Marie
Global Head of Investments, Private Bank and Wealth Management
End of year global insights
Macro – global
Global economy shines rays of hope
Economic resilience, falling inflation, healthy corporates and the potential of AI are just some of the reasons why it’s not all bad news for investors.
Macro – uncertainties
What could go wrong, or right?
While it’s impossible for investors to predict the future, here’s why it’s worth thinking ahead and pondering all options.
Macro – US
Can the US economy keep defying gravity?
Amid stratospheric government spending and a looming presidential election, the world’s most influential economy continues to avoid a recession.
Macro – Eurozone
Can it get any tougher for Europe?
With anaemic growth, energy prices showing signs of rising again and inflation stubbornly elevated, what can policymakers do to resuscitate the bloc?
Macro – UK
Stormy weather ahead
Stubborn inflation, high debt and looming elections are all on the cards for the UK in 2024. Will uncertainty hold the economy back?
Macro – China
Is the worst now behind China?
Can China defy the gloom in 2024, after weaker growth than had been hoped for this year?
Asset allocation
Tuning to the macro beat
How can external, uncontrollable events affect investor asset allocation? Read our insights to find out more.
Fixed income
The journey to a new rate regime
Despite expected volatility in 2024, find why bond investors may do well to embrace it. However, they’ll also need to look out for potential ‘value traps’.
Equities
Time for more defensive equity positioning?
With the rates and inflation outlook crucial to market volatility, can “quality” stocks, bonds and gold still offer some relief?
Private markets
Beyond the hourglass: Spotlight on private assets
In this chapter, we reflect on the growing allure of private markets and their role as a potential portfolio diversifier in both good and bad times.
Private markets
In conversation with David Rubenstein
In this special guest chapter, we share the exclusive insights of the Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of Private Equity titan, The Carlyle Group.
Behavioural finance
The psychology of investing
Can a better understanding of psychology improve investor decision-making?
Investing sustainably
Five sectors for long-term green growth in 2024
Can a better understanding of psychology improve investor decision-making?
Multi-asset portfolio allocation
“Quality” equities and gold continue to shine, despite slowing growth and rate hikes, while developed market bonds stand out in debt markets.
India
Can India’s growth sustain?
The health of India’s economy shows little signs of weakening. However, with elections looming and global inflation lingering, we explore the outlook.
All the articles published in Outlook 2024 are also available to download here as a PDF: