Barclays Private Bank’s views (please see our asset allocation page for more details):
Inflation: We are at, or near, peak inflation and prices increases. While inflation is likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels, it should gradually moderate in the coming months.
Recession: A mild recession is possible in the US and probably in parts of Europe. Yet, a temporary period of contraction isn’t necessarily the precursor to a crisis.
Rates: Central banks are trying to restore their credibility and the era of free, abundant liquidity is probably over. That being said, with inflationary pressure gradually abating, we believe that the hawkishness seen from central banks in the first half of the year won’t be repeated.
Fixed income: With the recent increase in yields, opportunities are emerging to lock in rates. We remain mindful of possible further spread widening in credit and would proceed with caution, especially in high yield debt. BB-rated bonds appear to offer the most attractive risk-reward.
Equities: Volatility will likely continue until the growth and inflation outlook improves. Although earnings expectations appear too optimistic, upcoming downgrades are already reflected in valuations. In this context, diversification remains key. We see opportunities in both cyclicals (banks and industrials) and defensives (healthcare).